ﻣﯿﮟ ﺑﺠﮫ ﮔﯿﺎ ﺗﻮ ﮨﻤﯿﺸﮧ ﮐﯿﻠﺌﮯ ﺑﺠﮫ ﮨﯽ ﺟﺎﺅﮞ ﮔﺎ
ﮐﻮﺋﯽ ﭼـــــﺮﺍﻍ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﻮﮞ ﺟﻮ ﭘﮭﺮ ﺟﻼ ﻟﮯ ﮔﺎ !
Tuesday, August 2, 2016
ﭘﮭﺮ ﮐﯿﺴﮯ ﻧﮧ ﺭﮐﮫ ﺩﯾﺘﺎ ﻣﺮﮮ ﮨﺎﺗﮫ ﭘﮧ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ
ﭘﮭﺮ ﮐﯿﺴﮯ ﻧﮧ ﺭﮐﮫ ﺩﯾﺘﺎ ﻣﺮﮮ ﮨﺎﺗﮫ ﭘﮧ ﻗﯿﻤﺖ
ﺑﮯ ﻟﻮﺙ ﻣﺤﺒﺖ ﮐﺎ ﻭﮦ ﻗﺎﺋﻞ ﮨﯽ ﻧﮩﯿﮟ ﮨﮯ
ﺩﯾﺎ ﮨﻮﮞ ﻣﯿﮟ، ﺑﺠﮭﺎ ﺩﻭ ﯾﺎ ﻣﺠﮭﮯ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﺮﻟﻮ
ﺩﯾﺎ ﮨﻮﮞ ﻣﯿﮟ، ﺑﺠﮭﺎ ﺩﻭ ﯾﺎ ﻣﺠﮭﮯ ﺗﺴﻠﯿﻢ ﮐﺮﻟﻮ
ﮨﻮﺍﺅ ،ﺗﻢ ﻣﺮﮮ ﭼﺎﺭﻭﮞ ﻃﺮﻑ ﮨﻮ، ﺟﺎﻧﺘﺎ ﮨﻮﮞ
ﮔﮭﺮ ﺗﻮ ﭘﯿﺎﺭﺍ ﮨﮯ ﮨﻤﯿﮟ ﺍﺏ ﺑﮭﯽ ﺭﮒ ﺟﺎﮞ ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮﺡ
ﮔﮭﺮ ﺗﻮ ﭘﯿﺎﺭﺍ ﮨﮯ ﮨﻤﯿﮟ ﺍﺏ ﺑﮭﯽ ﺭﮒ ﺟﺎﮞ ﮐﯽ ﻃﺮﺡ
ﮔﮭﺮ ﮐﺎ ﻣﺎﺣﻮﻝ ﻣﮕﺮ ﻧﻘﻞ ﻣﮑﺎﻧﯽ ﻣﺎﻧﮕﮯ
Monday, August 1, 2016
Indian Ocean Power Struggle: Pakistan Responding India
The third largest ocean in the world, the Indian Ocean, which can be characterized as a gateway, linking the East with the West and different regions of the world. The rising geo-politics in the Indian Ocean can be directed as power struggle between states to increase their influence and impact in the region. The international world lately has been buzzing with assessments and critique on Indian naval projection in Indian Ocean and also the sea-based nuclear deterrence around the region of Indo–Pacific.
Since the last decade the concept of Asian Century is been extensively used and the factors like increased economies, big markets, trade routes and access to resources and energy has shaped the geo-politics of Asia. The Indian Ocean encloses these rising economies and with that have the access to the necessary choke points. As Rear Admiral Alfred Mahan said, “whoever attained the maritime supremacy in Indian Ocean will become an important actor internationally.”
Also, whoever controls the Indian Ocean will be dominating Asia. Today, Asia has the potential to be the biggest market economy and the Indian ocean is the key to all the seven sea of the world. In the twenty first century, the future of the world will be decided depending on these seven seas. Since then, the Indian Ocean has become a centre point of power struggle among many regional players.
Pakistan is troubled and worried by the latest Indian development in Indian Ocean, especially the recent tests conducted by submarine launched, nuclear capable ballistic missile. These gestures of India in Indian Ocean, although are directed towards the Chinese modernization of their naval forces, yet they disturb the delicate balance of strategic stability in South Asia. New Delhi has also confirmed the testing of a K4 missile, also a submarine launched, having the capacity to carry the nuclear warhead up to the range of 3500 km.
The worrisome moment for Pakistan which is causing frequent frictions and has raised tensions among the international world is India did not inform Pakistan of these tests. As in 1988, both India and Pakistan have given a mutual understanding regarding prior information of each others missiles tests. Another agreement was signed in 2005 between both states on the pre-notification on the ballistic missile test for the both states to avoid any sort of misunderstanding and direct confrontation.
The accelerated growth of India’s nuclear development and the nuclearization of Indian Ocean will greatly upset the strategic balance of South Asia. The evolving nuclear dimensions in Indian Ocean is making Islamabad jump in a new competition of nuclear race with its arch rival India, hence creating an alarming situation at the international arena.
Both states today are said to be building their naval forces. So far, India been the largest importer of weapon in South Asia, has already assigned around $16 billion for the development of its nuclear submarines and the naval warships. There are also reports that suggest India is developing around 160 navy ships, few stealth destroyers and also anti-submarines corvettes.
If Pakistani side is viewed, Islamabad has just approved a proposal to buy diesel-electric submarines. If looked, eighteen years back, Pakistan was forced to be a nuclear weapon state when India first exploded its nuclear device in May 1998. Even that moment, Pakistan waited and looked towards the international community to take action against India but in vain. Pakistan having no other option, became a nuclear weapon state.
In the similar context, Pakistan today had requested United Nations not to let Indian Ocean be a nuclear zone. But Pakistan also needs to look for different avenues to neutralize the Indian developments in Indian Ocean by having a permanent solution to the existing problem, Pakistan’s initiative for a submarine launched cruise missile (Hatf-7-Babur).
The explorations made by the Gulf States highlighted the worth of the Indian Ocean economically; however these explorations are also the biggest factor, which has caused such a power struggle in Indian Ocean. Today Indian Ocean has become a point of competition between China, India and Pakistan.
The bilateral disagreements between China and India and also between Pakistan and India are acting as a catalyst which is escalating the nuclear activities in the region. Although, Pakistan has considered putting up a proposal calling for making Indian Ocean a Nuclear free zone which might be difficult owing to the region’s geographical importance and the ongoing power struggle.
The question which concerns many academicians and analysts is, if India’s nuclear development is aimed against China then why and for what Pakistan is entering into a nuclear race with India. The answer can be easily understood by taking an example from the past, India’s nuclear explosion of 1998 was directed against China’s explosion as India felt vulnerable, they were compelled to make necessary steps to deter China.
India’s explosion created a direct security dilemma for Pakistan whose sovereignty was put at stake. Also the fact that international community seemed to be at ease with the Indian nuclear explosion. It was not a knee jerk reaction for Pakistan to take such a decision but it was compelled by the actions of India.
Today as Indians are forced to respond to the Chinese threat in sea based nuclear developments, Pakistan is also forced to respond to the threats which arise by the accelerated nuclear sea based growth of India to stabilize the unique line of deterrence, which India keeps upsetting. Pakistan’s minimal deterrence strategy is what has kept a balance and reduced the possibility of a nuclear attack.
US or China; Who Should Pakistan Side with?
US President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama with Chinese President Xi Jinping and first lady Peng Liyuan before the State Dinner at the White House: Reuters
The world politics is a theatre of ever changing interests and partnerships. The recent visit by Chinese president Xi-Jinping to the United States signifies that China and the United States are looking forward to enforcing normalization of relations between them. Even though the task looks daunting especially because of their competing interests in the South China Sea, the way has been opened for talks and deliberations. The meeting of the two Presidents is being hailed as quite important not just for the two states but for their respective allies as well.
While the two major powers are engaged and working on finding an amicable solution to their outstanding issues, Pakistan is faced with a serious question which probably is not new but needs a more immediate attention than ever before, i.e. In wake of the changing regional dynamics, which of the two states should Pakistan be focusing on while contemplating on its future strategic alliances; China or the US?
The answer might seem obvious but is not very easy to follow through despite the realization that US has been exploiting Pakistan’s dependency in return for all its “favors”. It is specifically difficult for Pakistan to decide because it continues to be an important ally for both the states. Nonetheless, looking closely at the emerging regional realities might help Pakistani officials to arrive at some logical decisions.
China is a re-emerging power, and the most trusted partner of Pakistan. It has always been inclined on developing Pakistan to give it a stable economic, military and political foothold in the region, and views Pakistan as an effective counterweight against India. Pakistan has also been able to reap huge benefits in terms of its economic and security interests. China continues to support Pakistan on Kashmir issue.
Both share a long history of cooperation in various sectors including, defence and energy. At present China is the biggest investor in Pakistan, committed to the infrastructural developments through CPEC. Another significant dimension to consider is that both Pakistan and China have never been skeptical of each other’s intentions even when they are pursuing parallel relations with the US and India respectively.
The continued drone strikes on Pakistani soil, terming Pakistan a strategic key ally in US’ war against Terrorism while making it suffer unimaginable number of causalities fighting Al-Qaeda and Taliban since more than a decade now and still asking Pakistan to “do more”, all of this implies that US remains skeptical of Pakistan’s efforts and commitment. Moreover in the wake of US’ forces leaving Afghanistan, the coalition support fund is also being suspended despite the fact that Pakistan would need it more than ever before to fight against the extremist elements inside and outside its borders, a byproduct of WOT.
History seems to be repeating itself where during the Cold War, after having achieved its objective against Soviet Russia, the US left Pakistan on its own to deal with Jihadis, drugs and Kalashnikov culture. On top of all this US is now actively forging strategic alliance with India, further weakening Pakistan’s position in the region. At the same time the US is offering nuclear concessions and NSG waiver to India even though it is not an NPT signatory. This discriminatory policy by the US provides sufficient rationale for Pakistan to seek much closer ties with China.
In the light of these facts, it seems Pakistan might have already made a decision where it is gradually tilting more towards China, aiming to decrease its reliance over the US. At the same time the closeness between US and India and suspension of CSF further indicates that Pakistan may not be required as a front line ally by the US; however the CPEC project on the other hand naturally puts Pakistan in the front seat with China. No doubt Pakistan needs to re-visit its strategic relationship with the US and find a better alternative, which in this case is China.
However the “obvious” does not mean “easy”. The fact that US has infiltrated deep into Pakistan, physically and even diplomatically, and that financially Pakistan is liable to IMF being under the huge burden of debt, makes it nearly impossible to break away from these multi-layered shackles.
Pakistan needs to tread carefully in line with its national interests. China is an anchor against which Pakistan has always found support and it is looking more promising than ever. Once this understanding has been developed, the diplomatic machinery needs to churn out plausible route through which Pakistan can create more robust economic linkages with China and work towards charting a mechanism of reaping swift economic and strategic dividends. That’s the only option available to Pakistan as it cannot possibly afford a public breakup with the US despite having the right to do so.
The Consequences of Brexit
Finally Britons have decided their destiny by departing from the European Union through a referendum. This historic decision is bound to be marred with so many political, social and economical implications. It is the greatest catastrophe to befall the union in its history of almost six decades. No state has shunned the union before and this is going to be a hard-hitting challenge for the government to go forward without it.
The Brexit ramifications will affect the Britain economy and its immigration policy. The fate of Scotland, and Northern Ireland will remain in a limbo as it has to be seen whether they would want to continue to stay in federation or invoke the referendum as both were in favor of staying with European Union. The referendum result will strengthen the separatists in both states. Dealing with this new reality will be a tough challenge for new political leadership.
As far as economical ramifications are concerned, it is likely that the country go into a recession since she has to revise the different economic agreements with 27 countries. It is going to be a tough task for the government to maintain Britain’s position in economic terms. Economists argue that leaving the EU might shrink economy by 3.8 to 7.5 percent by the end of 2030.
The realization of the Brexit ramifications is also very strong. Hardly a day has been passed and there are loud calls demanding a vote re-run as a petition for vote re-run passed 2.4 million. Also, David Lammy MP called for parliament to block Brexit.
Now it remains to be seen how the Britain comes out of the post-referendum situation especially the issue of millions of immigrants and British residents living in the EU countries and how it maintains its territorial integrity with its three joint states.
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